Yesterday’s cryptocurrency market crash caused the price of BTC to drop 10% in just 2 hours. However, such volatility – typical of the digital asset class – does not impress long-term investors.
This is especially clear when considering the entire history of the Bitcoin network to date and the valuation of the oldest cryptocurrency.
BTC Holds Strong at $43,000 Despite Crash
Well-known analyst @therationalroot pointed out yesterday on X (Twitter) that despite the market crash, the price of BTC is still very high. Yesterday’s close near $43,000 is the second-highest close for the Bitcoin price. This is considered when looking solely at the anniversaries of the oldest blockchain network. The Bitcoin network is now 15 years old.
In addition, the analyst also published two other important charts. The first is an update of his famous spiral chart of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles. If the historical fractals are to be believed, with the beginning of 2024, the BTC price can be expected to begin a 2-year bull market.
On the other hand, the second is a chart of Bitcoin’s halving progress, which is expected in April 2024. This crucial event for BTC supply is now 92% complete.
BTC Price on the Network’s 15th Anniversary
Looking at the details of the chart of the Bitcoin price recorded on each of the network’s 15 anniversaries, we see that yesterday’s close is the second-highest ever. Only in 2022 was the BTC price higher than yesterday’s $43,450, at $46,451. All the other 13 anniversary days ended with a lower price for the oldest cryptocurrency.
Interestingly, 12 months ago, in 2023, the price of BTC was $16,670, even lower than the close recorded in 2021. Moreover, it was only $1,500 higher than the January 3, 2018 price. Which was just after Bitcoin reached its historic ATH near $20,000.
In addition, in the previous two cycles, it can be seen that after the macro bottom (red circles), which occurred after a bear market of about a year, the next 3 anniversaries of the Bitcoin network brought higher valuations (green circles). Yesterday was just the first.
If the rhythm of this cyclicality is maintained, it can be expected that in early 2025 and 2026, the price of BTC will be higher than yesterday’s $43,450.
Bitcoin’s Spiral Cycles and Halving
In addition to the BTC price chart for the 15th anniversary of the Bitcoin network, @therationalroot has also updated its two other flagship charts. The first concerns the spiral representation of Bitcoin’s price action as interpreted by 4-year cycles. It turns out that with the start of 2024, Bitcoin historically should enter a long-term bull market of about 2 years.
The spiral chart is divided into 4 areas. The top two quadrants represent 2-year bull markets. The lower right quadrant is a 1-year bear market. Meanwhile, the lower left is also the one-year accumulation period after declines.
If Bitcoin’s 4-year price action cycle continues, it will reach the peak of the current cycle at the end of 2025. This implies the commencement of a 2-year bull market, with the primary phase initiated after the halving (blue line).
Halving is further covered in the last of the charts published by the analyst. According to this, BTC halving is already 92% complete. According to the latest data, the event is expected on April 17, 2024.
If we look at the 2 previous cycles, we can see that the last 8% (or about 100 days) in the past brought drastically different BTC price action.
In 2016, the price of BTC surged strongly in anticipation of halving. On the other hand, there was a correction after the event, after which Bitcoin started a proper bull market.
In turn, in 2020, the COVID-19 crash resulted in the price of BTC temporarily losing 50% of its value. However, Bitcoin quickly recovered and stabilized in the $8500-$9500 range at the time of the halving and for the next 3 months.
Once the BTC price broke out of this range, it entered a long-term bull market again. This one led to the current all-time high of $69,000.
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