The popular stock-to-flow model, created by the pseudonymous “PlanB,” has been pretty accurate in predicting Bitcoin prices so far.
The brainchild behind the model has stated that the mid-cycle average should be around $100K per BTC. The cycles are taken between each halving event, the last being in May 2020 and the next in May 2024, about 900 days away.
He added that prices should be above that average now, but his floor model predicts $135K for a single BTC by the end of the year, which is in line with the S2F model.
As you know S2F model predicts ~$100K average this halving cycle (white line). I dumbed that down to “$100K Dec 2021 close” because to make $100K average, mid-cycle we should be above that average. My floor model (not S2F) predicts $135K Dec close: roughly in line with S2F model. pic.twitter.com/Oel7HmsmPr
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 11, 2021
Wild Bitcoin Price Predictions
The prediction model was originally published in March 2019. It explores the relationship between the supply production and the current stock available, essentially calculating Bitcoin’s value through scarcity.
In June, CryptoPotato reported that the author predicted Bitcoin would be at $98K by November before pushing to $135K to end the year. In reality, the asset is well below that level at the moment, hitting an all-time high of $69K on Nov 10.
When asked if he was still confident about that $98K November prediction, the analyst replied:
“Yup, I would be surprised, in fact it would be kind of an outlier if Nov close would not be $98K (plus or minus 5%).”
To reach the magic $135K prediction, Bitcoin prices would need to gain a further 107% from their current levels.
In August, the model and its creator stated that markets were entering the second leg of the bull cycle, which turned out to be accurate with the new ATH 7 months after the first one of this cycle. In the same month, cryptographer Adam Back also predicted that BTC would hit $100K by Christmas.
The S2F multiple, which tracks the actual price compared with the predicted one, is currently reporting a deviation of -0.41 from the expected model price of $98K.
Stock-to-Flow Multiple (463d)2021-11-10, 23:59 UTC
ln(actual / model)
Actual price: $64,756.08Model price: $98,531.46S2F multiple: -0.42 pic.twitter.com/dXDIohrIfT
— S2F Multiple (@s2fmultiple) November 11, 2021
BTC Current Outlook
Bitcoin has recovered a little from its leveraged trader-induced crash to $63K on Thursday. It is currently consolidating a little above that level, trading flat on the day at $65,000 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.
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